Nine years since the EU referendum, it turns out all those dire economic forecasts weren’t just scaremongering. They were bang on the money.
📉 A £40bn price tag – and counting
New analysis has revealed that Brexit has cost the UK around £40 billion in lost tax revenue — precisely the kind of economic hit experts predicted before the 2016 referendum.
On this day in 2016, 51.9% of voters opted to leave the EU. Since then, the UK has faced plummeting investment, falling trade volumes, and a tax shortfall so vast it could have paid for schools, hospitals, and public sector pay rises.
🔮 Forecasts weren’t doom-mongering – they were dead accurate
The £40bn figure comes from a new audit of predictions made by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which said Brexit would slash long-term productivity by 4%.
John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, led the audit. Speaking to The Times, he confirmed:
“A large chunk of the recent tax rises would not have been necessary had we remained in the EU or opted for a softer Brexit.”
Meanwhile, to plug the gap, the government has raised taxes by £100bn since 2019.
🧾 The long tail of Brexit damage
And we’re not done yet. According to the OBR, we’re still only halfway through the pain. They say it will take 15 years for the full effects to hit.
Trade volumes are projected to end up 15% lower than if the UK had stayed in the EU – a damning blow to Britain’s global competitiveness.
So much for “taking back control.”
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