Polling expert Professor John Curtice has warned that neither Kemi Badenoch nor Robert Jenrick are capable of leading the Conservatives to an electoral victory. As the race to replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader reaches its final stage, Curtice’s analysis suggests that neither candidate can win back voters or rejuvenate the party after its historic defeat in July.
The two candidates have made it to the last round of the Conservative leadership race, following the unexpected elimination of former frontrunner James Cleverly earlier this week. However, according to Curtice, both Badenoch and Jenrick face significant challenges in gaining voter support.
Curtice noted that Badenoch and Jenrick are both positioned on the right of the party. Badenoch has made headlines for criticising “woke” ideas and stating that “not all cultures are equally valid.” Meanwhile, Jenrick has focused on calls to withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights as part of a crackdown on immigration.
Despite their ideological stances, Curtice argued that they are “unknown quantities” to much of the public. A poll from Ipsos UK in August found that 62% of the British public were not closely following the leadership contest, underlining their lack of recognition.
Curtice also criticised the candidates for failing to grasp the reasons behind the Conservatives’ poor performance in July. He suggested that both Badenoch and Jenrick wrongly believe the party’s downfall was due to straying from Conservative values, rather than issues like Partygate and the disastrous mini-budget under Liz Truss.
The polling guru concluded that neither candidate appears strong enough to win back the voters the Conservatives have lost, even to far-right groups like Reform UK. However, he left the door open for a potential surprise, noting that as largely unfamiliar figures, either candidate could reveal new political talents as the race progresses.
The Conservative Party is currently at a critical juncture, holding just 121 seats in Parliament, the lowest in its history. Both Badenoch and Jenrick face an uphill battle to restore the party’s fortunes.
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